Third Quarter 2015 Market Update

Posted by Greg Eckler on Thursday, October 8th, 2015 at 1:34pm.

Although the weather may tell another story, fall has finally arrived. Third quarter is behind us and spring’s volatile market conditions have given way to a healthy, but not-so-crazy, pace. Which makes this the perfect time to take a breath, look back and assess the situation in Central Denver.

Since the beginning of the up market (2012) in Denver, we have seen a very even distribution of sales between the first and second half of each year, varying by only a few percentage points:

 

So far, 2015 seems to be matching this pattern.
• The first half of 2014 saw a total of 4,080 sales in Central Denver
• The first half of 2015 saw a total of 4,061 sales, or 19 less

Now, let’s look at Central Denver price changes in the first three quarters of 2015. Notice the big leap in price from first to second quarter, followed by a very modest change from second to third quarter. 

Days on market (DOM) follows the same pattern. Because of unprecedented spring demand, DOM dropped dramatically from first to second quarter, but then stabilized from the second to third quarter.

For 2016, I’m expecting a market similar to the past few years – uneven supply and demand in the first half, with more balance in the second half. Of course, changes in interest rates and impact from the upcoming presidential election could alter my assumptions, so stay tuned. January promises an even better gauge of Central Denver market trends.

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